Functional traits and performance of woody species on oil-affected soils of the Ecuadorian Amazon / Rasgos funcionales y comportamiento de especies leñosas en suelos afectados por petróleo de la Amazonía ecuatoriana

Abstract Introduction: Plant functional traits are widely used to predict community productivity. However, they are rarely used to predict the performance (in terms of growth diameter, growth height, survival, and integral response index) of woody species planted in degraded soils. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between the functional traits and the performance of 25 woody species planted in disturbed soils affected by oil extraction activities in Ecuadorian Amazon. Methods: Eighteen permanent sampling plots were established and five 6-month-old seedlings of each 25 species were randomly planted in each plot (125 individuals per plot), at a distance of 4×4 m. Eight quantitative functional traits (leaf size, specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf phosphorus concentration, leaf minimum unit, leaf dry matter content, stem specific density and leaf tensile strength) were determined for each species. Results: The woody species with high performance shows greater leaf size, specific leaf area and Stem Specific Density than those showing low performance. Leaf nitrogen concentration and stem specific density had a direct relationship with the integral response index. The leaf size, leaf phosphorus concentration, leaf dry matter content and leaf tensile strength showed a negative relationship with the integral response index. Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that the performance of woody species o disturbed soils can be predicted satisfyingly by leaf and stem functional traits, presumably because these traits capture most of environmental and neighborhood conditions.

Resumen Introducción: Los rasgos funcionales de las plantas han sido ampliamente utilizados para predecir la productividad (en términos de crecimiento en diámetro, crecimiento en altura, sobrevivencia e índice de respuesta integral) de las comunidades vegetales. Sin embargo, rara vez han sido utilizados para predecir el desempeño de las especies leñosas plantadas en suelos degradados. Objetivo: Evaluar la relación entre el desempeño y los rasgos funcionales de 25 especies leñosas plantadas en suelos afectados por actividades de extracción de petróleo en la Amazonía ecuatoriana. Métodos: Se establecieron 18 parcelas permanentes de muestreo y en cada parcela se sembraron aleatoriamente cinco plántulas de 6 meses de las 25 especies (125 individuos por parcela), a una distancia de 4×4 m. Se determinaron ocho rasgos funcionales (área foliar, área foliar específica, concentración de nitrógeno foliar, concentración de fósforo foliar, unidad mínima foliar, contenido foliar de materia seca, densidad específica del fuste y fuerza tensil foliar) de cada especie. Resultados: Las especies leñosas con alto desempeño presentaron mayor área foliar, área foliar específica y densidad específica del fuste que las especies de bajo desempeño. La concentración de nitrógeno foliar y la densidad específica del fuste mostraron una relación directa. El área foliar, la concentración de fósforo foliar, el contenido de materia seca foliar y la fuerza tensil foliar presentaron una relación inversa con el Índice de Respuesta Integral. Conclusión: Se demostró que el desempeño de las especies leñosas plantadas en suelos alterados puede predecirse satisfactoriamente por rasgos funcionales de hoja y de tallo, debido posiblemente a que los rasgos influyen en el crecimiento y supervivencia de las especies, y reflejan la mayoría de las condiciones ambientales.

A novel differential diagnosis algorithm for chronic lymphocytic leukemia using immunophenotyping with flow cytometry

Abstract Introduction The availability of a clinical decision algorithm for diagnosis of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) may greatly contribute to the diagnosis of CLL, particularly in cases with ambiguous immunophenotypes. Herein we propose a novel differential diagnosis algorithm for the CLL diagnosis using immunophenotyping with flow cytometry. Methods The hierarchical logistic regression model (Backward LR) was used to build a predictive algorithm for the diagnosis of CLL, differentiated from other lymphoproliferative disorders (LPDs). Results A total of 302 patients, of whom 220 (72.8%) had CLL and 82 (27.2%), B-cell lymphoproliferative disorders other than CLL, were included in the study. The Backward LR model comprised the variables CD5, CD43, CD81, ROR1, CD23, CD79b, FMC7, sIg and CD200 in the model development process. The weak expression of CD81 and increased intensity of expression in markers CD5, CD23 and CD200 increased the probability of CLL diagnosis, (p < 0.05). The odd ratio for CD5, C23, CD200 and CD81 was 1.088 (1.050 - 1.126), 1.044 (1.012 - 1.077), 1.039 (1.007 - 1.072) and 0.946 (0.921 - 0.970) [95% C.I.], respectively. Our model provided a novel diagnostic algorithm with 95.27% of sensitivity and 91.46% of specificity. The model prediction for 97.3% (214) of 220 patients diagnosed with CLL, was CLL and for 91.5% (75) of 82 patients diagnosed with an LPD other than CLL, was others. The cases were correctly classified as CLL and others with a 95.7% correctness rate. Conclusions Our model highlighting 4 markers (CD81, CD5, CD23 and CD200) provided high sensitivity and specificity in the CLL diagnosis and in distinguishing of CLL among other LPDs.

Left atrial automated functional myocardial imaging to identify patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation at high risk of stroke / 中华超声影像学杂志

Objective:To investigate the risk factors of non-valvular paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (NVPAF) with cerebral ischemic stroke(CIS) and analyze NVPAF by using left atrial automatic imaging (AFILA). Logistic regression model was established for left atrial(LA) function parameters.Methods:A total of 205 patients with NVPAF were included in the study and divided into the NVPAF group without ischemic stroke (154 patients) and the CIS group (51 patients). The clinical baseline data, blood biochemical results and AFILA ultrasound data of all patients were collected. Univariate analysis was performed to compare the above data between the two groups of patients. The independent risk factors were obtained by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Logistic regression model was compared with CHA2DS2-VASc scoring system in terms of area under ROC curve, sensitivity and specificity.Results:There were significant differences in age, CHA2DS2-VASc score, taking anticoagulant drugs, history of hypertension, diabetes and coronary heart disease, LAEF, S_R, S_CT, WBC, NEUT, HCY, UREA, NDD, NT-proBNP, Fibrinogen(Fib), Cardiac troponin I(cTnI) and NLR between the two groups (all P<0.05). The results of multifactor analysis showed that: age, hypertension, S_ CT, UREA, NLR, Fib and cTnI were independent risk factors associated with CIS in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation[ OR value: 1.608 ( P=0.003), 3.821 ( P=0.019), 1.259 ( P=0.001), 1.326( P=0.001), 1.352 ( P=0.011), 1.502 ( P=0.042), 7.651( P=0.001)]. After adjusting for the age, sex and history of hypertension included in CHA2DS2-VASc score, S_CT significantly led to NVPAF complicated with stroke[ OR value 1.259 (1.095-1.447), P=0.001]. The diagnostic efficacy of Logistic regression model is better than that of CHA2DS2-VASc scoring (AUC of 0.931 vs 0.717, 95% CI: 0.896-0.967 vs 0.634-0.799, sensitivity of 0.883 vs 0.755, specificity of 0.849 vs 0.713, all P<0.001). Conclusions:Age, hypertension, S_CT, UREA, NLR, fibrinogen, cTnI are independently associated risk factors for patients with combined CIS; The diagnostic efficacy of Logistic regression model is better than that of CHA2DS2-VASc scoring model.And the sensitivity and specificity are high.

Factors influencing the levels of occupational exposure in medical radiation workers in China, 2021 / 中国辐射卫生

Objective To analyze the factors influencing the levels of occupational exposure in medical radiation workers in China, and to provide a scientific basis for determining the key points of radiation protection in the medical sector. Methods The individual monitoring data on occupational external exposure in medical radiation workers in 2021 were collected from the “National Individual Dose Registry”. The Chi-squared test and logistic regression were used to analyze the factors influencing the levels of occupational exposure in medical radiation workers. Results The Chi-squared test showed that gender, occupational category, medical institution category, region, number of radiation workers per thousand population, and regional per capita GDP were significantly associated with occupational exposure in medical radiation workers exceeding the annual effective dose of 5 mSv and an annual effective dose limit of 20 mSv (χ2 = 21.456−262.329, 7.601−78.650, P < 0.05). The logistic regression analysis further showed that gender, occupational category, region, and number of radiation workers per thousand population were factors influencing the occupational exposure in medical radiation workers exceeding the annual effective dose of 5 mSv (χ2 = 14.621−170.857, P < 0.05); gender, occupational category, region, and regional per capita GDP were factors influencing the occupational exposure in medical radiation workers exceeding the annual effective dose of 20 mSv (χ2 = 5.401−48.709, P < 0.05). Conclusion Male radiation workers in interventional radiology and in central China have high risks of exceeding annual effective doses of 5 and 20 mSv. Moreover, high number of radiation workers per thousand population and regional per capita GDP are associated with low risks. Medical institutions should maintain a sufficient number of radiation workers and strengthen training on radiation protection knowledge for male and interventional radiology workers to enhance their radiation protection awareness. Investigation of the factors contributing to the high occupational exposure in central China should be intensified, and targeted effective measures should be conducted to reduce the occupational exposure in medical radiation workers.

Monitoring and analysis of endemic situation of schistosomiasis in Suzhou New District from 2004 to 2021 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the monitoring data of schistosomiasis from 2004 to 2021 in Suzhou New District， Jiangsu Province， and to provide evidence for improving schistosomiasis elimination strategies. MethodsFollowing the Opinions on Prevention and Control of Schistosomiasis， Parasitic Diseases and Endemic Diseases in Suzhou and the Technical Plan for Prevention and Control of Schistosomiasis， Parasitic Diseases and Endemic Diseases in Suzhou， the monitoring of schistosomiasis in the population and snail habitats from 2004 to 2021 was conducted. The Mann-Kendall method and Joinpoint regression method were employed to analyze the trend of epidemic indicators （such as seropositive rate， prevalence of snail frames， etc.）. Time series analysis （exponential smoothing model） was conducted to predict snail occurrence. ResultsFrom 2004 to 2021， a total of 73 680 people were serologically tested for schistosomiasis， with a positive rate of 0.084%. The seropositivity rate showed statistically significant differences between different years （χ2=70.73， P<0.05）， but there was no significant trend over time. In addition， 3 053 fecal tests were conducted and no positive result was found. The snail habitats covered an area of 70.11 hm2 and showed a decreasing trend （Z=-1.97， P<0.05）. A total of 30 093 frames were surveyed， of which 19.038% contained snails. The difference in the prevalence of snail frames between different years was statistically significant （χ2=7 203.09， P<0.05）， with a decreasing trend in the prevalence of snail frames （Z=-2.05， P<0.05）. A total of 26 296 live snails were seized and density of live snails was 0.874 snails per frame， showing a decreasing trend in the density of live snails （Z=-2.35， P<0.05）. A total of 12 391 snails were dissected and no infected snail was found. The areas treated with molluscicides remained stable at 264.60 hm2. An area of 27.77 hm2 achieved the goal of snail eradication through environmental modification， with a decreasing trend （Z=-2.44， P<0.05）. It is estimated that the prevalence of snail frames and snail density will remain relatively stable from 2022 to 2026， but the snail habitat area will fluctuate significantly， showing an increasing trend. ConclusionNo indigenous cases of schistosomiasis and no infected snails are reported， indicating the successful consolidation of schistosomiasis prevention and control measures. However， the snail habitat area fluctuates greatly with an increasing trend， suggesting the need for long-term Oncomelania snail monitoring in local areas.

Survival analysis on patients with occupational pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province from 1980 to 2019 / 中国职业医学

Objective: To study the survival time and its risk factors of patients with occupational pneumoconiosis. Methods: A total of 11 011 newly diagnosed occupational pneumoconiosis patients in Guangdong Province from 1980 to 2019 were selected as study subjects. The life table method was used for survival analysis. The influencing factors of survival time of occupational pneumoconiosis patients were analyzed using the WilCoxon (Gehan) test and Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results: The median survival time of pneumoconiosis patients was 26.0 years. The median survival period of stage Ⅰpatients was 3.5 years longer than that of stage Ⅱ patients and 10.1 years longer than that of stage Ⅲ patients. The median survival time of patients with an initial diagnosis age under 40.0 years old was 34.8 years longer than that of patients with an initial diagnosis age over 60.0 years old. The median survival time of patients with dust exposure duration under 25.0 years old was 13.6 years longer than patients with dust exposure duration age over 45.0 years old. The results of the Cox proportional hazards regression model showed that the initial diagnosis stage, initial diagnosis age, dust exposure duration, and medical insurance were risk factors of the survival time of occupational pneumoconiosis patients (all P<0.01). The risk of reduced survival time for patients with stage Ⅱ and stage Ⅲ as the initial diagnosis stage was 1.15 and 2.04 times higher, respectively, compared with stage Ⅰ patients (both P<0.01). The risk of reduced survival time for patients without medical insurance was 60.22 times higher than those with medical insurance (P<0.01). Conclusion: The risk factors of the survival time of occupational pneumoconiosis patients in Guangdong Province are initial diagnosis stage, initial diagnosis age, the dust exposure age, and medical insurance. Earlier detection, earlier diagnosis, and improvement of medical insurance coverage for patients can effectively improve the survival time of occupational pneumoconiosis patients.

Risk predictive models of healthcare-seeking delay among imported malaria patients in Jiangsu Province based on the machine learning / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To create risk predictive models of healthcare-seeking delay among imported malaria patients in Jiangsu Province based on machine learning algorithms, so as to provide insights into early identification of imported malaria cases in Jiangsu Province. Methods Case investigation, first symptoms and time of initial diagnosis of imported malaria patients in Jiangsu Province in 2019 were captured from Infectious Disease Report Information Management System and Parasitic Disease Prevention and Control Information Management System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The risk predictive models of healthcare-seeking delay among imported malaria patients were created with the back propagation (BP) neural network model, logistic regression model, random forest model and Bayesian model using thirteen factors as independent variables, including occupation, species of malaria parasite, main clinical manifestations, presence of complications, severity of disease, age, duration of residing abroad, frequency of malaria parasite infections abroad, incubation period, level of institution at initial diagnosis, country of origin, number of individuals travelling with patients and way to go abroad, and time of healthcare-seeking delay as a dependent variable. Logistic regression model was visualized using a nomogram, and the nomogram was evaluated using calibration curves. In addition, the efficiency of the four models for prediction of risk of healthcare-seeking delay among imported malaria patients was evaluated using the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The importance of each characteristic was quantified and attributed by using SHAP to examine the positive and negative effects of the value of each characteristic on the predictive efficiency. Results A total of 244 imported malaria patients were enrolled, including 100 cases (40.98%) with the duration from onset of first symptoms to time of initial diagnosis that exceeded 24 hours. Logistic regression analysis identified a history of malaria parasite infection [odds ratio (OR) = 3.075, 95% confidential interval (CI): (1.597, 5.923)], long incubation period [OR = 1.010, 95% CI: (1.001, 1.018)] and seeking healthcare in provincial or municipal medical facilities [OR = 12.550, 95% CI: (1.158, 135.963)] as risk factors for delay in seeking healthcare among imported malaria cases. BP neural network modeling showed that duration of residing abroad, incubation period and age posed great impacts on delay in healthcare-seek among imported malaria patients. Random forest modeling showed that the top five factors with the greatest impact on healthcare-seeking delay included main clinical manifestations, the way to go abroad, incubation period, duration of residing abroad and age among imported malaria patients, and Bayesian modeling revealed that the top five factors affecting healthcare-seeking delay among imported malaria patients included level of institutions at initial diagnosis, age, country of origin, history of malaria parasite infection and individuals travelling with imported malaria patients. ROC curve analysis showed higher overall performance of the BP neural network model and the logistic regression model for prediction of the risk of healthcare-seeking delay among imported malaria patients (Z = 2.700 to 4.641, all P values < 0.01), with no statistically significant difference in the AUC among four models (Z = 1.209, P > 0.05). The sensitivity (71.00%) and Youden index (43.92%) of the logistic regression model was higher than those of the BP neural network (63.00% and 36.61%, respectively), and the specificity of the BP neural network model (73.61%) was higher than that of the logistic regression model (72.92%). Conclusions Imported malaria cases with long duration of residing abroad, a history of malaria parasite infection, long incubation period, advanced age and seeking healthcare in provincial or municipal medical institutions have a high likelihood of delay in healthcare-seeking in Jiangsu Province. The models created based on the logistic regression and BP neural network show a high efficiency for prediction of the risk of healthcare-seeking among imported malaria patients in Jiangsu Province, which may provide insights into health management of imported malaria patients.

Time trend of pesticide poisoning in Jiaxing from 2008 to 2020 / 环境与职业医学

Background Pesticide poisoning is not only a common acute poisoning, but also an indispensable public health problem. It is important to describe and analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of pesticide poisoning for its prevention and control. Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and trends of pesticide poisoning in Jiaxing from 2008 to 2020, and provide a basis for making effective intervention measures. Methods The relevant information of pesticide poisoning cases in Jiaxing from 2008 to 2020 was collected through the Occupational Disease and Occupational Health Information Monitoring System of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the demographic information was obtained from the statistical yearbook of Jiaxing. Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze trends in overall, gender, age, season, type of poisoning, and type of pesticide among poisoned individuals. Results A total of 3109 cases of pesticide poisoning were reported in Jiaxing City from 2008 to 2020. The overall pesticide poisoning incidence trended downward from 2008 to 2014, with an annual percent change (APC) of −9.0% (95%CI: −16.6%-−0.7%). The female pesticide poisoning incidence trended downward from 2008 to 2015, with an APC of −8.6% (95%CI: −13.9%-−2.9%). The 18-34 age group showed a decreasing trend of pesticide poisoning incidence from 2008 to 2015, with an APC of −11.0% (95%Cl: −17.4%-4.3%), and an increasing trend from 2015 to 2020, with an APC of 18.5% (95%Cl: 4.7%-34.0%). The >60 age group showed a decreasing trend of pesticide poisoning incidence from 2008 to 2014, with an APC of -12.9% (95%Cl: −20.4%-−4.7%). The second quarter showed an increasing trend of pesticide poisoning incidence from 2010 to 2020, with an APC of 4.4% (95%CI: 0.3%-8.5%); the third quarter showed a decreasing trend, with an APC of −4.9% (95%CI: −8.6%-−1.1%); the fourth quarter showed an increasing trend from 2015 to 2020, with an APC of 17.8% (95%CI: 4.4%-33.0%). Productive poisoning showed a decreasing trend, with an APC of −11.1% (95%CI: −16.2%-−5.7%); self-poisoning showed a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2014, with an APC of -9.5% (95%CI: −17.4%-−0.7%), and an increasing trend from 2014 to 2020, with an APC of 10.2% (95%CI: 0.5%-20.8%). The incidences of poisoning by herbicides, fungicides, and mixed formulations all showed an increasing trend from 2008 through 2020, with an APC of 8.6% (95%CI: 5.8%-11.5%), 9.1% (95%CI: 0.3%-18.7%), and 193.3% (95%CI: 11.6%-671.0%), respectively; the incidence of poisoning by other types of pesticides showed a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2020, with an APC of −14.1% (95%CI: −23.7%-−3.2%). Conclusion The overall reported pesticide poisoning incidents in Jiaxing City present a decline then a rise in 2008 to 2020. Relevant departments should take timely measures to prevent and reduce the occurrence of pesticide poisoning according to the changing characteristics and occurrence trends of local pesticide poisonings.

Risk factors of endometrial lesions after breast cancer surgery and construction of a graph model / 中华内分泌外科杂志

Objective:To explore the risk factors affecting endometrial lesions after breast cancer surgery, and build a nomogram prediction model.Methods:From Oct. 2019 to Nov. 2021, 103 patients with abnormal bleeding after breast cancer surgery were selected, the clinical data of the patients were collected, and they were divided into the non-lesion group and the lesion group according to whether the endometrial lesion occurred. A Logistic risk regression model was established to analyze the risk factors affecting endometrial lesions in postoperative patients with breast cancer, a nomogram prediction model was constructed and verified, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was performed to analyze the nomogram model for predicting sensitivityof endometrial lesions.Results:Childbirth history ( OR=37.100, 95% CI: 3.777-527.7, P=0.004), endometrial thickness ( OR=2.489, 95% CI: 1.699-4.007, P<0.001), menopause ( OR=0.099, 95% CI: 0.015-0.499, P=0.009), abnormal bleeding time ( OR=6.922, 95% CI: 2.221-24.800, P=0.002), and types of treatment drugs ( OR=3.738, 95% CI: 1.187-13.200, P=0.030) had statistical significance in predicting endometrial lesions in postoperative patients with breast cancer. Using the above five variables to construct a nomogram model, the consistency of the nomogram in predicting endometrial lesions in postoperative patients with breast cancer was 0.739, and the discrimination was good. The calibration curve showed that the average absolute error between the predicted probability and the actual probability was 0.041,and ROC curve showed that the AUC value of the nomogram model for predicting endometrial lesions was 0.800. Conclusion:Establishing a nomogram model for predicting the risk of endometrial lesions in postoperative patients with breast cancer has good accuracy and high clinical value.

Expression of histone methyltransferase SETD1A and SETD5 in breast cancer and its correlation with clinicopathological characteristics of patients / 中华内分泌外科杂志

Objective:To analyze the expression of histone methyltransferase SETD1A and SETD5 in breast cancer and its correlation with the clinicopathological characteristics of patients.Methods:A total of 80 breast cancer patients were included in the study. GSCA website screened SET domain family members, predicted their expression in breast cancer tissues, and verified them with immunohistochemical SP method. Chi-square test and Logistic regression model were used to analyze the correlation between SETD1A, SETD5 and clinicopathological characteristics of patients.Results:The GSCA website showed that the expressions of SETD1A and SETD5 of the SET domain family were up-regulated in breast cancer tissues compared with normal tissues (all P<0.05). Immunohistochemical SP method showed that the positive expression rates of SETD1A and SETD5 in breast cancer tissues were 73.8% and 68.8% respectively, which were significantly higher than the positive expression rates of SETD1A and SETD5 in paracancerous tissues 38.8% ( χ2=19.91, P<0.001) and 32.5% ( χ2=21.03, P<0.001). Chi-square test results showed that the expression of SETD1A was significantly correlated with lymph node metastasis and vascular invasion, and the expression of SETD5 was significantly correlated with nerve invasion (all P<0.05). Logistic regression model showed that SETD1A expression was correlated with lymph node metastasis ( OR=0.07, 95% CI: 0.01-0.25, P<0.001) and molecular type ( OR=0.04, 95% CI: 0.00-0.48, P=0.022), SETD5 expression was correlated with neural invasion ( OR=6.41, 95% CI: 1.45-46.65, P=0.029) . Conclusion:The expressions of histone methyltransferases SETD1A and SETD5 are up-regulated in breast cancer tissues, and they are correlated with pathological features such as lymph node metastasis, vascular invasion, and neural invasion.

Correlation analysis between renin-angiotensin system and bone mineral density in children with glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis / 中华内分泌外科杂志

Objective:To investigate the relationship between renin-angiotensin system (RAS) and bone mineral density in children with glucocorticoids-induced osteoporosis (GIOP) .Methods:From Apr. 2020 to May. 2021, 53 children with GIOP were recruited in the Children’s Hospital of Taiyuan Maternal and Child Health Hospital and included in the observation group, and 47 children who received glucocorticoid therapy but did not suffer from GIOP were included in the control group. The levels of serum RAS components and bone mineral density of the two groups of pediatric patients were detected and compared, and the risk clinical indicators affecting bone mineral density and GIOP were analyzed.Results:There were no significant differences between the observation group and the control group in terms of gender, age, BMI, disease type, type of glucocorticoid use, use of anti-osteoporosis (OP) drugs, expression levels of Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) or angiotensin II (Ang Ⅱ) (all P>0.05) . The bone density value of the observation group was lower than those of the control group, and the levels of angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) (1.19±0.23) , angiotensin receptor 1 (AT1R) (1.24±0.24) , angiotensin receptor 2 (AT2R) (1.14±0.17) , and Mas receptor (MasR) (1.11±0.28) were significantly higher than those of the control group (1.00±0.23, 1.00±0.25, 1.00±0.21, 1.00±0.20) , and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.05) . Pearson analysis showed that bone mineral density was negatively correlated with the levels of ACE ( r=-0.34, P=0.013) , AT1R ( r=-0.41, P=0.002) and AT2R ( r=-0.34, P=0.014) , and stepwise regression model showed that ACE ( t=-2.21, P=0.032) and AT1R ( t=-2.92, P=0.005) were the main factors affecting bone mineral density. Logistic regression model analysis showed that bone mineral density ( OR=0.85, P<0.001) , Ang Ⅱ ( OR=0.53, P=0.041) and AT2R ( OR=2.00, P=0.024) were independent clinical risk factors affecting GIOP (all P<0.05) . Conclusion:RAS components ACE and AT1R are independent risk factors affecting bone mineral density in children with GIOP, and are significantly correlated with bone mineral density in children.

Analysis of epidemic trends and status of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemic trends and current status in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021， and to provide evidence for formulating and optimizing schistosomiasis control strategies in the province. MethodsEpidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021 were collected. The Joinpoint regression model was used to investigate the epidemic trends of schistosomiasis， and the annual average percent change （AAPC） was used to assess the changing trend of schistosomiasis infection in humans and bovines. SPSS 25.0 software was used to analyze the target achievement status， infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and the areas with snails in 2021 to evaluate the differences among various districts and epidemic regions. ResultsBy 2021， 24 counties （61.50%） in the province had achieved the elimination goal， with hilly and marsh counties reaching 82.60% and 31.30%， respectively. The seropositive rate of schistosomiasis in human was 3.51% across the province. However， the seropositive rate in marshland areas （4.77%） was significantly higher than that in hilly areas （1.23 %） （χ2=3 827.51， P<0.001）. The total area with snails in the province was 84 938.32 hm2， including 82 196.86 hm2 in marshland areas and 2 741.46 hm2 in hilly areas. From 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in the humans and bovines exhibited a declining trend， with AAPC values of -48.70 and -39.70， respectively. The decline rate in the hilly areas was higher than that in marshland areas. However， the area with snail showed an upward trend （AAPC=0.50）， with a growth rate of 5.80% in hilly areas， which was greater than that in marshland areas （0.40%）. ConclusionFrom 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and bovines in Jiangxi Province continued to decline， while the areas with snails increased. The prevention focus should still be on the marshland endemic areas， and attention should also be given to the risk of schistosomiasis in hilly endemic areas. Therefore， it is necessary to continue implementing a comprehensive prevention and control strategy that emphasizes controlling the sources of infection and adopts tailored measures based on local conditions and precise policies.

Efficacy of machine learning models versus Cox regression model for predicting prognosis of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma / 南方医科大学学报

OBJECTIVE@#To compare the performance of machine learning models and traditional Cox regression model in predicting postoperative outcomes of patients with esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (AEG).@*METHODS@#This study was conducted among 203 AEG patients with complete clinical and follow-up data, who were treated in our hospital between September, 2015 and October, 2020. The clinicopathological data of the patients were processed for analysis using R language package and divided into training and validation datasets at the ratio of 3:1. The Cox proportional hazards regression model and 4 machine learning models were constructed for analyzing the datasets. ROC curves, calibration curves and clinical decision curves (DCA) were plotted. Internal validation of the machine learning models was performed to assess their predictive efficacy. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC), and the model fitting was assessed using the calibration curve.@*RESULTS@#For predicting 3-year survival based on the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.870 for Cox proportional hazard regression model, 0.901 for eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), 0.791 for random forest, 0.832 for support vector machine, and 0.725 for multilayer perceptron; For predicting 5-year survival, the AUCs of these models were 0.915, 0.916, 0.758, 0.905, and 0.737, respectively. For internal validation, the AUCs of the 4 machine learning models decreased in the order of XGBoost (0.818), random forest (0.758), support vector machine (0.0.804), and multilayer perceptron (0.745).@*CONCLUSION@#The machine learning models show better predictive efficacy for survival outcomes of patients with AEG than Cox proportional hazard regression model, especially when proportional odds assumption or linear regression models are not applicable. XGBoost models have better performance than the other machine learning models, and the multi-layer perception model may have poor fitting results for a limited data volume.

Changes in Notified Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in China, 2005-2020 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years.@*METHODS@#Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System (TBIMS) from 2005 to 2020, we calculated the annual percentage change (APC) using the Joinpoint regression model.@*RESULTS@#From 2005 to 2020, a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China, with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 population. The age standardization rate (ASR) continued to decline from 116.9 (/100,000) in 2005 to 47.6 (/100,000) in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 5.6% [APC = -5.6, 95% confidence interval ( CI): -7.0 to -4.2]. The smallest decline occurred in 2011-2018 (APC = -3.4, 95% CI: -4.6 to -2.3) and the largest decrease in 2018-2020 (APC = -9.2, 95% CI: -16.4 to -1.3). From 2005 to 2020, the ASR in males (159.8 per 100,000 in 2005, 72.0 per 100,000 in 2020) was higher than that in females (62.2 per 100,000 in 2005, 32.3 per 100,000 in 2020), with an average annual decline of 6.0% for male and 4.9% for female. The average notified incidence was the highest among older adults (65 years and over) (182.3/100,000), with an average annual decline of 6.4%; children (0-14 years) were the lowest (4.8/100,000), with an average annual decline of 7.3%, but a significant increase of 3.3% between 2014 and 2020 (APC = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4 to 5.2); middle-aged (35-64 years) decreased by 5.8%; and youth (15-34 years) decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%. The average ASR in rural areas (81.3/100,000) is higher than that in urban areas (76.1/100,000). The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5% and 6.3% in urban areas. South China had the highest average ASR (103.2/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%, while North China had the lowest (56.5/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%. The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3 (/100,000), with the smallest annual decline (APC = -4.5, 95% CI: -5.5 to -3.5); the average ASR in the Northwest China was 100.1 (/100,000), with the largest annual decline (APC = -6.4, 95% CI: -10.0 to -2.7); Central, Northeastern, and Eastern China declined by an average of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 6.1% per year, respectively.@*CONCLUSIONS@#From 2005 to 2020, the notified incidence of PTB in China continued to decline, falling by 55%. For high-risk groups such as males, older adults, high-burden areas in South, Southwest, and Northwest China, and rural regions, proactive screening should be strengthened to provide timely and effective anti-TB treatment and patient management services for confirmed cases. There is also a necessity to be vigilant about the upward trend of children in recent years, the specific reasons for which need to be further studied.

Influencing Factors of HIV/ AIDS Death Based on Bayesian Cox Proportional Hazard Regression Model / 中山大学学报(医学科学版)

ObjectiveTo understand the composition of related characteristics of HIV/AIDS cases in Lanzhou and analyze the influencing factors of AIDS-related deaths. MethodsThe information of HIV/AIDS cases reported in Lanzhou from 2011 to 2019 was collected， the method of survival was used analysis and Bayesian Cox Proportional Hazard Regression Model was constructed to analyze the related factors of death. ResultsA total of 2 312 HIV/AIDS patients were selected in this study， including 45 AIDS-related deaths. The results of multivariate regression showed that the older the patients were， the higher the risk of death was； the risk of death of AIDS patients at the time of diagnosis was 13.91 times higher than that of HIV-infected patients； Patients who received CD4 testing had a lower risk of death than those who did not； The risk of death was 0.22 times higher among those who received antiretroviral therapy than those who did not receive antiretroviral therapy. ConclusionsAge at diagnosis， course of disease， antiviral therapy were the influencing factors of AIDS-related death in HIV/AIDS patients in Lanzhou. Therefore， it is necessary to strengthen health education for AIDS-related groups， advocate early detection， early diagnosis， and early treatment， expand the coverage of AIDS testing and treatment， prolong the survival time of AIDS patients.

Analysis for trends in disease burden of congenital birth defects among children under 5 years old in China / 中南大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVES@#Congenital birth defects are the main source of disease burden among children under 5 years old in China. This study aims to compare the trends in disease burden of different congenital birth defects among Chinese children under 5 years old from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a scientific basis for strengthening the comprehensive prevention and control of birth defects.@*METHODS@#Based on data from the Global Burden Disease (GBD) in 2019, the incidence mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of congenital birth defects among Chinese children under 5 years old from 1990 to 2019 were selected as evaluation indicators. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in disease burden of different types with congenital birth defects over three decades. The study also compared the differences in disease burden of congenital birth defects among children under 5 years old by gender.@*RESULTS@#Compared to 1990, the DALYs rates of congenital heart anomalies (1 931.91/100 000), digestive congenital anomalies (364.63/100 000), neural tube defects (277.20/100 000), congenital musculoskeletal and limb anomalies (133.33/100 000), and Down syndrome (128.22/100 000) in children under 5 years old in China in 2019 were decreased 70.78%, 71.61%, 86.21%, 36.84% and 73.65%, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the mortality rates and DALYs rates of different congenital birth defects showed an overall downward trend, but the incidence of digestive congenital anomalies and Down syndrome showed an upward trend after 2005 and 2001, respectively. Except for congenital musculoskeletal and limb anomalies, incidence of the remaining categories of birth defects were higher in boys than that in girls.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under 5 years old in China is decreased substantially from 1990 to 2019, but the burden of congenital heart anomalies is still serious and the incidence of some birth defect diseases is on the rise, and it is still crucial to strengthen the prevention and treatment for birth defects in children and propose targeted measures according to their gender characteristics.

Evaluation of predictive machine learning models for drug repurposing against delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein-Supplementary Data

Drug repurposing is a major approach used by researchers to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic which has been worsened by the current surge of delta variant in many countries. Though drugs like Remdesivir and Hydroxychloroquine have been repurposed, studies prove these drugs have insignificant effect in treatment. So, in this study, we use the already FDA approved database of 1615 drugs to apply semi-flexible and flexible molecular docking methods to calculate the docking scores and identify the best 20 potential inhibitors for our modelled delta variant spike protein RBD. Then, we calculate 2325 1-D and 2-D molecular descriptors and use machine-learning algorithms like K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and ensemble stacking method to build regression-based prediction models. We identify 15 best descriptors for the dataset all of which were found to be inversely correlated with ligand binding. With only these few descriptors, the models performed excellently with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.952 in Regression Error Characteristic curve for ensemble stacking. Therefore, we comment that these 15 descriptors are the most important features for the binding of inhibitors to the spike protein and hence these should be studied properly in terms of drug repurposing and drug discovery.

Evaluation of predictive machine learning models for drug repurposing against delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein

Drug repurposing is a major approach used by researchers to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic which has been worsened by the current surge of delta variant in many countries. Though drugs like Remdesivir and Hydroxychloroquine have been repurposed, studies prove these drugs have insignificant effect in treatment. So, in this study, we use the already FDA approved database of 1615 drugs to apply semi-flexible and flexible molecular docking methods to calculate the docking scores and identify the best 20 potential inhibitors for our modelled delta variant spike protein RBD. Then, we calculate 2325 1-D and 2-D molecular descriptors and use machine-learning algorithms like K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and ensemble stacking method to build regression-based prediction models. We identify 15 best descriptors for the dataset all of which were found to be inversely correlated with ligand binding. With only these few descriptors, the models performed excellently with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.952 in Regression Error Characteristic curve for ensemble stacking. Therefore, we comment that these 15 descriptors are the most important features for the binding of inhibitors to the spike protein and hence these should be studied properly in terms of drug repurposing and drug discovery.

Modeling the influence of basketball game parameters on the final result in Tokyo 2020 / Modelando a influência dos parâmetros do jogo de basquetebol no resultado final em Tóquio 2020

ABSTRACT This study aims to ascertain the significance of the basketball game parameters which discriminated between winning and losing teams in matches played. The study sample comprises matches played at the men's basketball tournament at the XXXII Olympic Games in Tokyo. Four regression models were formed. Due to the size of the sample, the number of explaining variables was reduced using factor analysis, followed by stepwise regression to ascertain the statistical significance of the obtained models summarily, which were then broken down into individual parameters. This study indicates: (1) one of the four set regression models was summarily highly statistically significant; (2) out of the remaining models, two were eliminated due to the presence of multicollinearity, and one model did not exhibit high statistical significance; (3) the final score was most influenced by the variables of two- and three-point shot percentages, number of three-point shots, turnovers, defensive rebounds, and true shooting percentage. The results of the study corroborated the results of other studies which were carried out in recent years, that the game of basketball is trending towards three-point shots and lay-ups, reduction of turnovers when passing, and defensive rebounds have been confirmed to be greatly significant.

RESUMO Este estudo tem como objetivo verificar a significância dos parâmetros do jogo de basquetebol que discriminam entre equipes vencedoras e perdedoras em partidas disputadas. A amostra do estudo compreende partidas disputadas no torneio de basquete masculino dos XXXII Jogos Olímpicos de Tóquio. Quatro modelos de regressão foram formados. Devido ao tamanho da amostra, o número de variáveis explicativas foi reduzido por meio de análise fatorial, seguida de regressão stepwise para verificar sumariamente a significância estatística dos modelos obtidos, que foram então decompostos em parâmetros individuais. Este estudo indica: (1) um dos quatro modelos de regressão definidos foi sumariamente altamente estatisticamente significativo; (2) dos demais modelos, dois foram eliminados devido à presença de multicolinearidade e um modelo não apresentou alta significância estatística; (3) a pontuação final foi mais influenciada pelas variáveis porcentagem de arremessos de dois e três pontos, número de arremessos de três pontos, turnovers, rebotes defensivos e porcentagem de arremessos verdadeiros. Os resultados do estudo corroboraram os resultados de outros estudos que foram realizados nos últimos anos, que o jogo de basquete está tendendo a arremessos de três pontos e bandejas, redução de turnovers ao passar e rebotes defensivos foram confirmados muito significativo.

Tendency analysis of incidence and mortality of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective:To analyze the tendency of incidence and mortality of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 through 2019 and to estimate the age-period-cohort effect.Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, the incidence and mortality data of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 were extracted. The trends of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents by gender was analyzed using the joinpoint regression model, and the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated. The age-period-cohort model was used to quantitatively assess the effects of age, period, and cohort on ASIR and ASDR for mechanical injuries.Results:① Overall tendency: from 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of mechanical injuries showed an increasing trend (540.95/100 000 in 1990 vs. 815.34/100 000 in 2019), and the ASDR first increased slightly and then decreased (2.62/100 000 in 1990 vs. 2.87/100 000 in 2005 vs. 1.77/100 000 in 2019) among Chinese residents. During the observation period, ASIR and ASDR for mechanical injuries of male were higher than female. ② Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the ASIR of mechanical injuries had a fluctuating trend of increasing first and then decreasing and then rising rapidly among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC = 1.42%, t = 9.59, P < 0.001). The ASIR of the Chinese male showed a slight decrease and then continued to increase (AAPC = 1.47%, t = 8.72, P < 0.001), while the ASIR of the Chinese female showed a rapid rising at first, then rapidly declining and then rising again (AAPC = 1.31%, t = 12.11, P < 0.001). From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR of mechanical injuries showed a fluctuating downward trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then rapidly decreasing among Chinese residents (AAPC = -1.39%, t = -6.72, P < 0.001). The decrease rate of ASDR among male was as same as that among all population (AAPC = -1.44%, t = -7.29, P < 0.001), but the decrease rate of ASDR in female was relatively slow (AAPC = -1.08%, t = -4.54, P < 0.001). ③ Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that, with the increase of age, the risk of mechanical injuries among the overall population, male and female in China increased, then decreased, and then increased rapidly. The first small peak was at the age of 45-49 years old in male and 65-69 years old in female. The overall death risk showed an increasing trend with age, with a slowly increasing trend before 75 years old, and a sudden increase after 75 years old. The peak age of death risk was between 90 and 94 years. In terms of period effect, the risk of mechanical injuries showed a gradually increasing trend with time among the overall population, male, and female in China, and the risk of death showed a trend of decreasing first and then rapidly increasing and then decreasing. In terms of cohort effect, the risk of mechanical injuries among the overall population, male, and female in China showed a gradual upward trend with the increase in the birth year, and the risk of death showed an M-shaped trend. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of mechanical injuries showed an increasing trend, and the mortality increased first and then decreased. Although the disease burden has improved, it is still high. More attention needs to be paid to the prevention and control of mechanical injuries, especially in the young population.